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Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 5 Feb 2018

Gold futures fell over one percent in American trade as the dollar index gained
ground following earlier data from the US, the world's largest economy and ahead of
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams' speech later
today. The Federal Reserve voted on Wednesday to hold overnight interest
unchanged at the range of 1.25% to 1.50% at the January 30-31 meeting matching
analysts' expectations. This was current chair Janet Yellen's last meeting with her
term ending next month and getting replaced by Jerome Powell with markets looking
forward to the March 20-21 policy meeting the first under the new chair to take clues
about his views on monetary policy and interest rates.

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange are at first sight looking quite
mixed this morning Friday February 2,with copper and lead in positive territory tin
unchanged and aluminium, zinc and nickel in negative territory. But on closer
inspection of the charts all look well placed to push higher following average gains of
1.1% on Thursday. Indeed copper that has been one of the laggards of late is up by
0.8% at $7,177 per tonne, aluminium rebounded well on Thursday zinc and nickel
prices are just off recent highs and lead prices are in new high ground while tin is
consolidating after very strong gains. Volume has been below average with 6,577 lots
traded as of 06.25 am London time.

Oil futures fell in American trade as the dollar index gained ground following earlier
data from the US the world's largest energy consumer and ahead of Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco President John Williams' speech and Baker Hughes' weekly
report on oil rigs later today. Wednesday the Energy Information Administration
released its report on US crude stocks showing a buildup of 6.8 million barrels in the
week ending January 26 compared to a 1.1M drop in the previous reading while
analysts expected a mere 0.1M increase with total stocks now reaching 418.4 million
Natural gas futures fell over four percent in American trade to the lowest since
January 9, as the dollar index plumbed January 25 lows following a basket of data
from the US the world's largest energy consumer including the EIA report that
showed a lower-than-expected inventory draw down last week.

Markets found strong support at these lower levels as prices stabilized after the
recent fall. However recovery was limited due to lack of strong demand amidst
expected higher arrivals of the new crop in coming weeks .Even as sowing is
expected to be higher with shifting of other crop towards Jeer due to the high
prevailing rates a delayed sowing in Gujarat (due to warmer climate) may have
some adverse impact on the crop productivity and its arrivals. Exports from
China have reportedly been on the rise. Sideways to slight weak trend persisted
for Turmeric as new crop arrivals kept up trend limited and traders too waited
for some more fall in prices before initiating demand in the mandis.
Soy bean recovered from days low after receiving positive inputs from the
2018-19 Union Budget session.India harvest season subdued export demand
for soy meal and estimations of sufficient amount of inventory lying with
stockists had been capping the upside just few months back but as parity in
exporting Indian soy meal has re-established and harvest season nears
completion any sharp fall is ruled out. Soya oil posted a decent recovery amid
positive cues about the Agri sector from the Union Budget announcements.
Soya oil had maintained strong trend last week amid firmness in Soy bean and
global market.

Guar gradually starts moving up as firmness in Crude oil prices leading to rising
export demand kept supporting prices after the recent fall. Overall trend
remains Bullish. A rise in Dollar vs Rupee too would be supporting factor for
exports. Moving forward guarseed is likely to touch at least 5000, while guar
gum might see levels of 10000 or even above. Upward trend is expected in
medium term also because of rising concerns on production front from recent
crop losses due to excess rains in Rajasthan just few months back.

The medium term outlook remains positive for mustard but sentiments might
remained eased ahead of harvest season. In coming weeks a comfortable
supply situation shall limit the upside movement. Estimations of ample quantity
of inventory in physical markets shall prevent prices to move significantly higher
say 4250 or beyond in near future. But lower support levels and strength in
soybean shall prompt buyers to enter at every fall now since 3960-80 is
currently acting as a strong support for the April contract. Markets bounced
back after the recent fall in prices for Cotton as demand started rising in the
Indian markets after the recent corrections. Strong support noted at 20000

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News Release: Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 5 Feb 2018
Submitted on: February 05, 2018 12:13:40 PM
Submitted by: Vijay
On behalf of: